Trade Determinants and Export Potential of Senegalese Vegetable Products

Abstract

This paper aims to identify the key factors and export potential of Senegalese vegetables to 33 partners for the period 2000-2021. We apply the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method (PPML) to the structural gravity model using WITS, CEPII, WDI and WDG databases.  The results suggest that Senegalese exports of horticultural products can be boosted both by strengthening macroeconomic competitiveness and by targeting importers with high GDP, strong institutional robustness, a shared colonial past, and preferential trade agreements. Conversely, administrative costs and procedures, as well as the language barrier, considerably reduce trade flows. The assessment of export potential revealed substantial untapped commercial potential. Indeed, all of Senegal's partners represent only the tip of the iceberg (0 to 30%). It also highlights a high concentration of trade flows towards a few European partners, while African partner countries remain marginal in the export structure.